Majorityrights Central > Category: World Affairs

From the The Independent:-

President Nicolas Sarkozy looks certain to win a crushing parliamentary majority after utterly dominating the first round of the French legislative elections.

The new President’s centre-right party and its allies are forecast to win well over 400 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly in the second round of voting next Sunday.

Despite a poor turnout of just over 60 per cent - reflecting the fatigue of the electorate after the April-May presidential election - M. Sarkozy will claim a mandate to pursue his fiscal, economic and social reforms. Computer projection suggested that his centre-right party and its allies could take between 405 and 445 seats.

M. Sarkozy’s aim had been not just to defeat the left and centre, but to “crush all hope” that they could put together a coherent opposition. In the event, the main opposition party, the Socialists, looks capable of achieving a respectable result next week with around 120 seats, compared to 149 at present. The new centrist party of Francois Bayrou, the Mouvement Démocrate, looks likely to take fewer than four seats.

... The decline of the French Communist Party, still a significant force two decades ago, will finally be reflected in parliament. Its seats are likely to fall from 21 to between 6 and 12. The far-right National Front will once again have no seats but its share of the vote collapsed yesterday from 11 per cent to only 4.6 per cent. This could mark the end of the Jean-Marie Le Pen era. The NF leader, 79 this month, is now likely to face internal moves to persuade him to stand aside.

... Openness and pragmatism are one side of M. Sarkozy’s character. The other is an obsessive need to control all that surrounds him. This extends to the media and the opposition.

One of the new President’s first acts was to appoint the former head of his private office to run France’s most-influential television channel, TF1.

He has already created a “new centre” party of ex-Bayrou followers, who will follow the Sarkozy line in the National Assembly. According to Le Monde, he plans to try to create a breakaway, parliamentary group of “Leftists for Sarkozy”.

So now we will see what France, which has tested the integration model to destruction for British post-Multiculturalists, will get from the economic liberalism that is testing English and European-American society to destruction today.  The answer, once the Sarko shine wears off, will surely be the promised but heavily-protested and politically bloody end of the French socialist model.  That will produce sufficient economic growth to keep the middle classes happy.  It will also will lead to the sort of “controlled immigration” that manages to lower labour cost and further cosmopolitanise France.  The pendulum will swing politically, and the left will produce a neoliberal of its own.

And the NF?  It must build a national organisation from the bottom up.  Councillors and mayors must come before a charismatic leader.  Not that they have one to turn to anyway.

From the Jerusalem Post:-

In the face of Iran’s race to obtain nuclear weapons, the Israel Air Force has expressed newfound interest in receiving the F-22 - a US-developed fifth generation stealth fighter jet - and has requested that the Defense Ministry present the request on its behalf to the Pentagon, The Jerusalem Post has learned.

While the sale or transfer of F-22s to Israel did not come up in talks Wednesday between Defense Minister Amir Peretz and US Defense Secretary Robert Gates, defense officials told the Post that Israel would ask to receive the aircraft in order to retain its “military edge” in the Middle East.

... The F-22 formally entered operational service in the US Air Force in December 2005 but has not yet been sold outside the US due to a federal law which barred export sale of the aircraft.

Last March, however, Congress lifted the nine-year ban on its sale, potentially clearing the path for an Israeli purchase of what is considered the most advanced fighter jet in the world today.

The single-seater, double-engine aircraft can achieve stealth though a combination of its shape, composite materials, color and other integrated systems.

A positive US decision on the issue in the coming months could see the F-22 in Israel by the end of decade, years before the IAF is expected to begin receiving the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) - another stealth fighter under development - also known as the F-35, expected in 2014.

On Thursday, Gates tried to ease Israeli concerns about the planned American weapons sale to Saudi Arabia as well as other US Gulf allies, saying that Washington remained committed to preserving Israel’s military edge over its neighbors.

Gates also said his 24-hour trip to Israel did not include any discussions on taking military action against Iran. He reiterated his belief that diplomacy was the best course of action for halting Iran’s nuclear program.

In her talks with Gates, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni warned that the countries under threat from Iran were testing the Free World and vacillation was perceived as weakness. This might create a desire to appease Iran, she said. Livni cautioned that only the determination of the international community would keep the “moderate camp” on the same side.

“We live in a neighborhood in which a projected image is very meaningful,” she said. “If the impression is that the world is losing to the ‘neighborhood bully,’ they will want to join him.” Before leaving Israel, Gates visited the Yad Vashem Holocaust Museum in Jerusalem, accompanied by Peretz.

If Israel acquires the F22 by the end of the decade that will intersect nicely with Iran’s anticipated roll-out of nuclear weapons.  The F22 was originally conceived as an air superiority fighter for use against the soviet airforce.  But it is equipped now for ground attack.  It certainly isn’t a very pretty airplane.  But strangely, prettyness never bothered the “neighbourhood bullies” of, for example, Lebanon.  2009 looks to be the earliest date when the bullies of Iran will also receive their due.

The largest turnout for over fifty years has produced a conventional Socialist v Conservative pairing for the 2nd round of the French presidential election, which will take place on 6th May.

It will be interesting to see if/how Sarkozy’s “right-wing action man” image is reworked from here.  Its success in bleeding away the support for Le Pen is now apparent.  It should have been so beforehand really, since its corollary - the rank hatred from the “anyone but Sarko” camp - certainly was.

For French nationalists the Le Pen vote of 11.5% holds little promise for the future.  His high-water mark of 22% in 2002 will haunt his successor.  The French liberal Establishment can draw three conclusions:

1) Their greatest electoral enemy is low turnout.  Providing the bulk of the electorate carry on believing that conventional politics will solve their problems, a high turnout - this one was 84% - will always work for them.

2) If after the eighteen days of the Paris riots and the vote against the EU Constitution the French people still support the political centre, there is virtually nothing that can threaten them.

3) Incorporating FN ideas into public discourse works against political nationalism.  It now remains to be seen how much of Sarkozy’s “I won’t betray you” promises to FN supporters and Royal’s wrapping herself in le tricolor will feed through to the victor’s presidential policy.  For the reason of No.2 above, very little, I would say.

The FN itself has an impossible task before it.  The softening of Jean-Marie’s language under the guidance of his youngest daughter, Marine, has benefitted it nothing.  I doubt now that Marine can succeed him to the party leadership.  In reality no one can.  He was a giant of nationalist politics, and without him the Party surely risks further electoral marginalisation from here.  As a producer of ideas for popular consumption perhaps it will continue to have some success.

But only nationalists execute nationalist policy.  And that’s what would save France.

The government needs to be sending a signal that it is not acceptable to discriminate against non-Russians. It should not be participating.  The irony is that in the Soviet era Russia was famous for promoting “friendship between peoples”, hosting large numbers of students from the developing world.  But now that slogan seems to have been turned on its head.  It is now Russia for Russians.

Allison Gill, head of the Moscow office of Human Rights Watch, following the coming into effect yesterday of a law reserving retail jobs for ethnic Russians.

From the Independent:-

Russia bans foreign workers from retail jobs

The legislation, which has been described as state-sponsored racism by human rights activists, bans non-Russians from working in large chunks of the country’s retail sector.

In particular it prevents anyone who doesn’t hold a Russian passport from working in Russia’s huge indoor and outdoor food-and-clothing markets and in the thousands of roadside kiosks that sell anything from newspapers to cosmetics. Such jobs are usually low paid and involve working at least 12-hour days.

Until yesterday, it was not uncommon to visit a market staffed exclusively by migrant workers from across the former Soviet Union. But, as of yesterday, hundreds of thousands of migrant workers from countries such as Georgia, Azerbaijan and Tajikistan are looking for a new job.

In Russia’s Far East, where such positions have typically been filled by Chinese migrant workers, the impact was felt immediately. Many of them appear to have already packed their bags and returned home.

At Ussuriysk’s vast market near the Chinese border, almost all the stalls were reported to be deserted. “We had hoped good sense would prevail ... This could disrupt the economy and bring many problems,” said Sergei Simakov, a district councillor from Ussuriysk.

Some commentators have raised fears that prices may rise as employers are forced to pay higher wages and have questioned whether ethnic Russians will be willing to take up jobs that entail such long hours. At Moscow’s famous Dorogomilovsky food market several stalls were denuded of their usually exotic mixture of fruit and vegetables from across the vast region. In their place hung signs that read: “Wanted: Sales-people. Must be Russian.”

Officials from the country’s migration service raided a Moscow market yesterday. That is a sign that the Kremlin expects the new law to be scrupulously followed. Four foreign workers were detained.

A spokesman for the Federal Migration Service said the raid proved that the new law was effective. “Considering that this particular market has 1,200 trading stalls and only four foreigners were detected you can conclude that in general the law is working.” The Kremlin insists that there is nothing racist about the law that it says is intended to protect the rights of ethnic Russians, who have complained of being squeezed out of the retail sector by migrant workers.

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I am very pleased to post the third of the essays PF has sent to me, venturing this time upon global and third world politics, and Iraq.  PF will now join the MR writers panel and post without further need of my engagement.  On behalf of everyone, then, I welcome a “potentially” valuable and unquestionably interesting and informative new member of the team.
GW

It certainly was an interesting facet of 20th century politics that both CIA and Communist intelligence agents were most interested in peddling/enforcing their universalist ideologies in oil-rich and resource-rich regions (Bolivia, Chile, Iran, Kosovo).

Its an open question whether the CIA and Russian intelligence were motivated by “Freedom” and “Socialism” respectively, or by the potential for large-scale resource acquisition.

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Open Democracy has a straightforward but informative piece by Patrice de Beer on next year’s French presidential election.  The passage on Jean-Marie Le Pen told me two things I never knew before.

First:-

There is a snag - the same one that derailed his efforts in 1981. By law, each candidate needs the support of 500 elected representatives (from national or local assemblies, or mayors) to enter the contest; for the FN this is always difficult, as the party has few elected members (none in parliament), and Le Pen has always relied on courting rightwing village mayors.

Second:-

Jean-Marie Le Pen combatively proclaims a determination to win; and if he can’t reach the ballot, he threatens to unleash “his” voters against forces on the right he accuses of betrayal (thus the covert efforts from Sarko’s” camp to help him obtain the 500 signatures he needs).

Obviously, Sarko has his eyes on Le Pen’s 13 to 17% poll rating.  Right now, the Sarkozy-Royal contest is too close to call.  But get the old devil into the race and his supporters won’t vote for Royal.  Get the old devil out of the race at the first poll on April 22nd and they will have to vote for the Monsieur with the riot baton.

The interesting thing is that Le Pen is thinking along not dissimilar lines.  That 17%, polled in mid-November, is a record for him.  And there’s still ample time for a surge between now and April.  If the mainstream right is split going into that poll Le Pen could repeat his shock-wave performance of 2002, when he eliminated Jospin.  This time the victim would be Sarko, followed by a face-off against the left.

Le Pen, the unity candidate.  Well, maybe.

A last thought.  Which candidate would the denizens of les banlieues prefer to see in the Élysée?  Royal, no question.  But which of the others would they prefer her to contest the second ballot against?

And what methods do they have to hand to engineer that happy outcome?

The Litvinenko poisoning has, and with what terrible, slow inevitability, become the Litvinenko murder, and is well on its way to becoming the Litvinenko Affair.

How much the public will be told from herein is, to say the least, moot.  Both the British and Russian secret services have become involved, we are told.  Both involvements, though, may be more diversionary than truly investigative.

Mr Litvinenko himself was in no doubt as to who his killers were, and then there is this:-

Chemists said that a fatal dose of polonium could only be produced artificially, by a particle accelerator or nuclear reactor.

“This is not some random killing. This is not a tool chosen by a group of amateurs. These people had some serious resources behind them,” Dr Andrea Sella, a lecturer in chemistry at University College London, told Reuters.

So what, in the shark-infested waters of international diplomacy, does the Litvinenko murder portend?

Probably not that much, after all the cloak and dagger stuff has receded from the headlines.  It isn’t in Britain’s national interest to humiliate Putin and find a radioactive FSB hand in the killing.  An effective police investigation could prove disastrous.  One can already hear the seasoned Foreign Office Russophiles proclaiming, “What, just so Blair at the Met can claim to keep the streets of London free from the FSB!”  No one will reply that Russian state gangsterism impacts on our global interests - consider the dioxin-scarred features of the Ukrainian leader, Victor Yushchenko - and now there is some leverage against it.

The plain truth is that we need considerably greater cooperation with Mr Putin, gangster or no.  Our main interest is energy.  Until recently Britain imported only modest volumes of gas from Russia.  That will almost certainly change if security of supply can be established.  If.  The Ukrainian experience in January 2006, when the pipeline from the east was shut down for purely political reasons, is holding us back now.  Only a reliable, cooperative Russia can encourage our trust, but Russia itself must be encouraged to that end.

Then there is the Iranian nuclear problem, and the question of a regnant Iran regardless of that.  Being America’s second best little buddy doesn’t auger very well for influencing Nejad.  Russia has influence in Tehran.  It is also a vital ally in resisting terrorism, for which sound working relations with the FSB are a prerequisite.

So all in all we shouldn’t expect too much clarity from the Litvinenko investigation.  It will, I believe, leave a bitter taste in many mouths.  But diplomacy was ever thus.

The following is a story about the inherent dishonesty - or possibly leftism - of the little hero of the French right, Nicolas Sarkozy.  It involves guns in private ownership, and actually originates not from a French source but from a Swiss gun website.

Swiss men, incidentally, like their guns - by which I mean not the odd twelve-bore but massively lethal military hardware.  Guns are a central part of Swiss life.  By government decree every adult male who is not on active service is a Reservist.  He must be armed and ready to venture forth in defence of his country … fighting his own way through enemy lines to join up with his unit if necessary.  So there’s cold steel in every true Switzer’s home, and that’s how they like it.  It’s been that way for generations. 

Even so, it isn’t liberal to leave well alone, and all loved customs in the West must come under the “critical” gaze.  Now there is a growing movement in Switzerland to take the gun out of the home.

But that’s Switzerland, and somewhat off-topic.  So we’d better get back to the little Hungarian Jewish guy who, as Minister for the Interior, is the top chief of police in all France.

It’s true that mainstream politicians famously dislike an armed citizenry.  But why does Sarkozy, who enjoys whipping up populist support with his tough-guy posturings on immigration, want to disarm native Frenchmen at this point in time?  Is he simply travelling leftward for political effect, as David Cameron is?  Is he trying to draw the sting from the Socialists?

His reasoning as stated below is certainly no guide.  It is contorted and unconvincing, and I don’t think he can really believe it himself.  It reads as though he confected it on the spur of the moment because the real logic of his argument can’t be made public.  See for yourself.

Here’s a translation from the Swiss website by MR reader Michael R:-

FRANCE: WORRYING NEWS FOR GUN-OWNERS

The pre-electoral campaign is underway in France.  Next year French citizens must choose a new president. The two designated favorites are:

- for the left, Segolène Royal, self-styled “passion flower”

- for the right, Nicolas Sarkozy, disfavoured by his short stature and his Hungarian name, but appreciated by his supporters for his muscular stance on the lack of security, the incapacity of French justice to command respect and restore order in les banlieues, etc.

The majority of private gun-owners and enthusiasts were getting ready to vote for Sarkozy until, during a radio show, the presidential Ccndidate answered a question about the right to keep a gun and the right of self-defence. It was on the RTL radio network on 22nd September:-

“I’d like to say one thing about my conception of the Republic …

Security is the responsibility of the State.  I am against militias.  I am against the private ownership of firearms, and I’m trying to make you think about that.

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